Canvi climàtic: El pes el porten els pobres



Si bé el canvi climàtic amenaça a tota la comunitat internacional, els costos humans més severs recauen sobre els pobres, un sector sense cap responsabilitat en la degradació ambiental, va subratllar l'Organització de les nacions Unides (ONU).


29-11-2007 - Eixa advertència conté el fil argumental de l'informe sobre Desenvolupament Humà 2007-2008, dedicat esta vegada a la lluita contra el canvi climàtic, que l'agència autora del document, el Programa de les nacions Unides per al Desenvolupament (PNUD), va divulgar este dimarts.

Estem molt interessats que el món es done compte que el canvi climàtic té un enorme potencial de tirar per terra els avanços obtinguts en el desenvolupament, en general, i en la pobresa en particular, va dir a IPS l'experta del PNUD, Cecilia Ugaz.

El llançament de l'informe en esta data va respondre a una decisió estratègica, perquè apareix la setmana anterior al començament de les deliberacions de la Conferència de les Parts de la Convenció Marc de les nacions Unides per al Canvi Climàtic, que se celebra en la ciutat indonèsia de Bali des del 3 al 14 de desembre, va apuntar Jean Fabre, subdirector de l'oficina del PNUD en Ginebra.

"Els debats de Bali són fonamentals perquè del seu resultat dependrà el context en què es desenrotllaran les negociacions d'un tractat que reemplaçarà al Protocol de Kyoto quan expire en 2012", va comentar Fabre a IPS.

El Protocol de Kyoto, aprovat en 1977 i vigent des de 2005, va establir els compromisos assumits pels Estats parts per a aplicar la Convenció Marc en la seua intenció de controlar el calfament global. Per això, l'informe de Desenvolupament Humà preveu que no es pot dissociar el canvi climàtic d'altres qüestions i caldrà integrar la lluita contra la pobresa en eixa matèria i al revés, va precisar Fabre.

Ugaz va estimar que un resultat positiu de les discussions de Bali seria que els països es posaren d'acord per a determinar les polítiques i les accions per a afrontar la mitigació i l'adaptació al canvi climàtic.

L'informe del PNUD convoca a adoptar un enfocament que combine formes rigoroses de mitigació, orientades a limitar a menys de dos graus l'augment de la temperatura global en el segle XXI respecte als nivells existents en l'època preindustrial, amb un enfortiment de la cooperació internacional a fi de l'adaptació als canvis que origina el calfament.

Les temperatures s'han elevat al voltant de 0,7 grau des del començament de l'era industrial i el ritme d'augment s'està accelerant mentres els científics aporten proves aclaparadores que eixe increment guarda vinculació amb els gasos d'efecte hivernacle que s'acumulen en l'atmosfera.

Els dos aspectes, mitigació i adaptació, són imprescindibles per a combatre el canvi climàtic i les amenaces que presenta, va reafirmar Ugaz.

En el terreny de la mitigació, el PNUD calcula que, amb relació a les emissions mitjana de gasos hivernacle que es registraven en 1990, els països industrials haurien de tallar-les en 30 per cent per a l'any 2020 i en 80 per cent per al 2050.

L'informe sosté que no ha de desviar-se l'atenció de les responsabilitats bàsiques que tenen les nacions industrialitzades en les emissions mundials d'eixos gasos.

"Els països rics en conjunt ja no tenen més l'oportunitat d'incrementar les emissions, però això no és el que estem observant", va anotar Ugaz. Per això és important manifestar que les nacions industrialitzades han de començar ja mateix a tallar les seues emissions, o almenys estabilitzar-les com més prompte millor, va insistir.

En canvi, per als països en desenvolupament, el PNUD calcula que les seues emissions podran créixer fins al 2020 per a després començar amb talls que porten a reduccions de 20 per cent abans de 2050.

"Els països en desenvolupament afronten els riscos majors, no sols per raons geogràfiques, perquè generalment s'ubiquen en àrees tropicals naturalment més castigades pels climes extrems, sinó també perquè presenten nivells més baixos de desenvolupament humà", va descriure Ugaz.

"I si quelcom protegix als sers humans de les conseqüències dels desastres, això és la seua pròpia capacitat de desenvolupament humà, el seu capital humà", va dir.

Però en eixe camp, les dades del PNUD no són encoratjadores. "Encara tenim prop de 2.600 milions de persones que viuen amb ingressos inferiors a dos dòlars per dia i a 1.000 milions que es troben en la indigència", va relatar l'experta.

Només 32 països podrien aconseguir el quart dels huit Objectius de Desenvolupament del Mil·lenni, que es proposa reduir en dos terceres parts la taxa de mortalitat de menors de cinc anys.

"Hi ha hagut progressos, reduccions de la pobresa, però encara necessitem batre'ns per aconseguir abans que res els Objectius del Mil·lenni establits per l'ONU en 2000, i després enfortir les capacitats dels països per a promoure el desenvolupament humà", va exposar Ugaz.

En este punt apareixen els problemes de les desigualtats, en un món que de manera creixent avança a dos velocitats, va descriure.

El PNUD registra que 80 per cent de la població mundial viu en països on les desigualtats dels ingressos s'amplien. "I el pitjor de tot és que eixes diferències han demostrat ser un obstacle a la capacitat de la gent de recuperar-se de les commocions climàtiques", va agregar.

El potencial negatiu dels efectes del canvi climàtic en les poblacions pobres ha sigut subestimat. L'informe del PNUD cita l'exemple de la nutrició en xiquets nascuts en famílies de Kenya afectades per sequeres. L'agència va seguir durant cinc anys el desenvolupament d'eixos xiquets i va comprovar que per a eixa època, 36 per cent afrontava un risc major de desnutrició.

Com a forma de mitigació del canvi climàtic, el PNUD proposa que s'establisca un preu a les emissions de carboni, de manera que reflectisca els efectes negatius que eixe gas hivernacle causa a l'atmosfera. Fins ara es pensava que el preu de les emissions podia fixar-se a través de dos mecanismes: la càrrega impositiva i el comerç.

No obstant, Ugaz va opinar que a causa de les enormes reduccions necessàries es requerirà aplicar una combinació de disposicions que incloga les dos alternatives, impositiva i comercial, sumades a altres regulacions i a polítiques públiques.

Per la seua banda, Fabre va dir que el volum de recursos per a afrontar la reducció de les emissions és tan elevat que seran necessaris uns 300.000 milions de dòlars per any. "És clar que tal suma no pot provindre únicament dels governs i per tant caldrà usar mecanismes del mercat", va dir.

El document del PNUD afirma que l'acord que reemplace al Protocol de Kyoto podria marcar un nou rumb si imposa límits estrictes a les futures emissions i crega un marc per a l'acció col·lectiva internacional.

IPS



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